How are nuclear strategies, including ambiguity, latency, and extended deterrence, evolving in the current Middle East security environment? Have recent conflicts, from the Gaza war to the twelve-day Israeli attack on Iran, heightened the salience of nuclear deterrence or policies of ambiguity in the region? How do these developments affect the nuclear order in the Middle East? What roles do external powers, such as the United States, Russia, and Europe, play in shaping these dynamics?

We will explore the extent to which Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other states in the region are reassessing their strategic thinking on nuclear deterrence, as well as their engagement with non-proliferation and disarmament frameworks, including the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC), and proposals for a Middle East zone free of weapons of mass destruction.

This talk will also feature findings from the speaker’s recent book, Struggle for Alliance: Russia and Iran in the Era of War in Ukraine, to shed light on the implications of Russian policy for Iranian nuclear decision-making.

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